May 14, 2005
-- by John Emerson
This Pew Center report is the best dissection of American political demographics that I've ever seen. It draws the lines in the right places. (I can't critique the methodology, but it rings true to me).
The two groups of interest are the older, unsuccessful, uninformed, cynical "Disaffecteds" (9% of adults: Bush 42%, Kerry 21%, nonvoters 23%) and the younger unsuccessful, uninformed, cynical "Bystanders" (10% of the adults).
96% of the "Bystanders" didn't vote in 2004.
The anti-populist bias of the Democrats means that they refuse to appeal to these voters. Anti-populists point to the cynicism and resentment of this particular 19% of the electorate and ask, "So you want us to play to their cynicism and resentment?"
No, we should be figuring out how to reach them with a hopeful message.
If we had something to offer them, we might get their votes. As it is, the 19% break down approximately 4% Bush, 2% Kerry, 12% nonvoters, and 1% uncertain.
The anti-populists present themselves as tough-minded political realists, but since they've been losing elections for us all along, maybe we should ditch them. They never really were all that realistic -- there's something else going on with those guys.
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Do you think Bush will try for a 3rd term?
Posted by: jon st at May 15, 2005 8:09 AM
That would be a coup d'etat, and he doesn't need to do that. He plans to be succeeded by a Republican of his type, and I've sure Rove is working on it.
Posted by: John Emerson at May 15, 2005 9:39 AM
We have already had a coup d'etat in 2000. As far as I can see, Bush can run again in 2008. The rule says that you cannot be ELECTED more than twice. Well, Bush was not elected in 2000, he was appointed. Wouldn't that make him eligible to run again in 2008? Also, this man has been a failure all his life. He now has a lot of power. How difficult is it going to be for him to walk away from this and go back to being the inept little joke that he was before. I have a feeling that he will find a way to, at least try to find a way for another term.
Posted by: Jane Algozzini at May 16, 2005 6:21 AM
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