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December 14, 2007

Today's Housing Bubble Post - All Those Buyers...

-- by Dave Johnson

In for a Surprise... Go read it, but I just had to reproduce the chart here:

smiarograph.jpg

In August, 2006, I wrote a post Today's Housing Bubble Post - How Far Can Prices Fall?

Suppose rents are $2000 a month for a 3-bedroom house. Subtract from that repairs, maintenance, etc., and let's say you are clearing $1800. Instead of trying to calculate property taxes let's just say $400 per month - which is lower than what they would be ($650) if purchased now but you'll get my point in a minute.

So you're clearing about $16,800 a year from your investment. Let's say you are shooting for a 7% return. That means the house SHOULD be priced at about $240K, approx 1/3 of current pricing.

That's SF Bay Area pricing, by the way. And prices tripled here in the bubble, so that sounds about right.

But I'm not going that far in my prediction. You have to account for ten years of inflation - which is higher than reported. Also the dollar drop means people from other countries will find higher prices cheap and the Bay Area is a premium place to live. And other demographic factors. But I don't rule out a 50% drop. Prices here really shouldn't be much higher than maybe $400K

Posted by Dave Johnson at December 14, 2007 8:48 AM

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