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January 3, 2008


-- by Dave Johnson

I'm not sure how much difference Iowa should make in the choice of a Democratic candidate. We know the top three are close in the polls and the will come in with one of them in first, one in second and one in third. The real race is for fourth place.

It isn't a secret ballot, and I think this can affect this in interesting ways. If you know your boss is a huge supporter of one candidate you are not that likely to go stand up for one of the others with your boss watching you. So in this way there can be an influence. So which candidates does that benefit?

It's the ballot in New Hampshire that will start to make a difference.

AND with Iowa less than a week away there really isn't any reason for any candidate to drop out. The only expense is a few plane tickets, hotel rooms and rental cars. If there were a big time gap between them, it might be different.

Posted by Dave Johnson at January 3, 2008 4:55 PM

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I just got back from casting my vote in the Iowa Democratic Caucus. In followup discussions over at Eschaton, someone raised the most exciting possibility I've heard, something I never thought might be possible in my lifetime.
If the voting stays this tight through the rest of the primaries, and nobody drops out, there may be no majority at the Democratic National Convention. That would mean... OPEN CONVENTION!!!

Posted by: Charles [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 3, 2008 7:12 PM

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