April 18, 2012
-- by Dave Johnson
High turnout always favors Democrats. This year the Republican/corporate effort is to keep people from voting. In the states there's the who voter suppression thing - voter ID laws, shutting down the places where you can get the right ID, laws blocking registration drives, laws killing multi-day voting, etc.
But there is going to be a different kind of anti-voting effort, too. The ads are going to be designed to turn people off, make them hate the idea of having anything to do with this election. You are going to see the TV and other information channels saturated with so many lies and smears and so much nastiness and intimidation and manipulation, all designed to make people want to do anything but vote.
The ads are not about persuading anyone to vote because there aren't enough people who don't already know how they will vote. The incredibly shrinking swing vote - The Washington Post
Of the 23 percent who called themselves undecided in the latest Pew poll, 9 percent lean toward Obama while 7 percent lean to Romney. That leaves just seven percent as purely without any opinion between Romney and Obama.
Posted by Dave Johnson at April 18, 2012 7:08 AM
"High turnout always favors Democrats."
The facts don't support your assertion (http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html). We had a high voter turnout in 2004, Bush was reelected, the Republicans held the house and Senate. In 2006 we had a very low voter turnout which gave Harry Reid and Pelosi the Senate and House.
The lowest voter turnout in a Presidential election year we've had in my lifetime was in 1996 when Clinton was reelected. I'd say the turnout variable is not very well correlated with the D vs. R result.
Posted by: Scorpius at April 18, 2012 5:16 PM
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